The Third Certainty - Change
Published March 3rd, 2008 in GeneralBenjamin Franklin once said ‘In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.’ I’d like to throw another variable into the mix and that third certainty is change. The rate of innovation taking place around us is unbelievable. In order for today’s companies to stay relevant they have to ask themselves ‘What are our competitors not doing?’ and spot trends in order to create the products and services of tomorrow.
At times this sounds all rather fanciful, but in reality this has always been the case. I’m currently reading ‘Last Night A DJ Saved My Life: The History Of The Disc Jockey‘ and it illustrates this perfectly. The music industry is said to be caught in the middle of a revolution at the moment, in reality it’s just in another stage of its continued evolution.
Consider these facts for a moment.
- Up until the 1920s, the majority of music played on radio was by live musicians. When the great depression hit, it was far more economical to play records instead. Musicians at the time were up in arms.
- The first nightclub was established by Jimmy Saville in Leeds where he came up with the then revolutionary thought that people might pay to hear recorded music.
Both of these milestones seem inconsequential now, but were revolutionary at the time. The history of the music industry is littered with similar incidents. Even look at the current state of the industry. The big talking point at the moment is still Radiohead’s decision to let consumers choose what price they wanted to pay for downloading their latest album. Saul Williams made a similar decision when distributing his Trent Reznor produced Niggy Tardust album. Reporting in the Irish Times Jim Caroll outlines Trent Reznor reaction to the results:
The Nine Inch Nails frontman produced Saul Williams’s The Inevitable Rise and Liberation of Niggy Tardust album. When it was released last November, listeners had the option to download it for free or to pay $5 for higher-quality MP3s.
Reznor and Williams thought that fans would shell out the token $5 to support the artist, but they were in for a rude awakening. While Williams’s self-titled 2004 album sold 33,897 copies worldwide, only 28,322 of the 154,449 people who downloaded Niggy Tardust - just 18 per cent of the total - put their hands in their pocket this time around.
“I thought if you offered the whole record free at reasonable quality - no strings attached - and offered a hassle-free way to show support that clearly goes straight to the artists who made it at an unquestionably low price, people would do the right thing,” Reznor said.
But this was not to be. While Reznor argues that more people now have Williams’s music than ever before and may well go to see him when he tours, the fact that fewer than one in five downloaders were willing to pay $5 a pop means a shortfall for the artist when costs are taken into account.
Reznor describes the outcome as “disheartening” and the figures may explain why Radiohead, the other high-profile proponents of the tip-jar business model, are keeping quiet about the facts and figures from their recent In Rainbows release experiment.
Carroll follows up on the story on his blog, outlining Saul Williams’ reaction, which is more reflective of the changes in the music industry.
I think it’s early in the game. I’m not disappointed at all. I think Trent’s disappointment probably stems from being in the music business for over 20 years and remembering a time that was very different, when sales reflected something different, when there was no such thing as downloads. Trent is from another school. Even acts that prospered in the ’90s, you look at people like the Fugees or Lauren Hill selling 18 million copies. That sort of thing is unheard of today. But Trent comes from that world. So I think his disappointed stems from being heavily invested in the past. For modern times, for modern numbers we’re looking great, especially for being just two months into a project.
Huge changes are underfoot in the music industry. One of the interesting trends which I’ve been banging on about for a while is the idea that consumers are becoming media concierges. On social networking sites and blogs, people are posting links to music videos, audio files or simply listing what acts they like. By incorporating a ‘purchase this’ button, there is an opportunity for record labels, rather than simply hope that the consumer copies and pastes the act name into iTunes and makes a purchase.
I’m a good example, I’ve bought countless songs after listening to them on Perez Hilton. I’m sure may people have done the same after watching whatever music video Damien Mulley has included in his daily fluffy links. Is it any wonder that Warner Bros are negotiating a deal with Perez Hilton? Reporting on the story, the New York Times point out a study conducted by researchers at New York University, which indicated that the albums that had been the subjects of 40 blog posts before their release date had sales of triple the average.
Any wonder that Facebook have launched Band Pages, a music service that enables bands and labels a way to post and sell their own music and music-related items (via Wired.)
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