Credit Crunch - The Herd Isn’t Always Right
Published October 7th, 2008 in GeneralInteresting observation on the financial meltdown that we are currently witnessing - the much heralded wisdom of the crowds might not be all that it’s cracked up to be. Take for example the hysteria we have seen among bank customers in Ireland where at one point the trend of a return to mattress money was evident, where consumers believed that they would be safer keeping their money under their bed than in a bank.
RTE’s Joe Duffy programme was taken to task by the government recently for a show which was extremely critical of the banks. The Irish Independent reported that “Finance Minister Brian Lenihan personally rang the director general of RTE on Thursday to express his outrage at a Liveline radio programme, presented by Joe Duffy, which purported to elicit public opinion on the financial turmoil …but ended up provoking unprecedented panic and causing genuine fears that it might lead to a run on the banks. Mr Lenihan took the initiative when alerted by officials in his department that the Financial Regulator and banks across the country were being ‘inundated’ with telephone calls after the programme from customers alarmed that they were about to lose their savings.”
Interestingly, when challenged about the coverage RTE defended the show, stating in the Independent’s coverage that it “‘fulfils a legitimate function’ in allowing ‘ordinary people’ to express their views.” However the article goes on to state that “the State broadcaster is known to be deeply embarrassed by the fallout from Mr Duffy’s programme, which, sources at the station admit, virtually gave panicked callers free rein to express their lack of confidence in the banking system based on little other than their own feelings.”
That final statement from inside sources at the station makes for interesting reading. As Dale Carnegie once said, “when dealing with people, remember you are not dealing with creatures of logic, but creatures of emotion.” By not including independent experts in the discussion or allowing the banks their right of reply, the discussion ended up getting swept away in a sea of hysteria. Or, as I prefer, Agent K’s analysis in Men In Black - “a person is smart, people are stupid”
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Tis a fool that considers “much heralded wisdom of the crowds” a good path to follow. The whole Duffy incident stinks of Janis’ theory of groupthink.
And this is how it all happened!
http://docs.google.com/TeamPresent?docid=ddp4zq7n_0cdjsr4fn&skipauth=true
Good one Chris
Sure some people took their money out of the banks as a result of the Joe Duffy show - but others were taking it out BEFORE the show and so were others afterwards who hadn’t heard the show. Oh I nearly forgot: 7 banking days later two of our largest banks nearly went belly up due to foreign speculation that they were experiencing severe bad debt problems. It wasn’t because of Joe Duffy. Maybe the crowd were right after all …?
Point about the Joe Duffy show is that on the show itself an alternative opinion should have been presented. Obviously some of the banks were in crisis before the show and afterwards, but that’s not to say that the entire population should pull their money out of banks.
My thought on the wisdom of the crowds is that organisations should observe the trends and opinions of the masses in order to leverage rather than be led by them. If we were to follow the wisdom of the crowds then we’d think that free university fees and no water charges were a good idea.